Third millennium thinking: creating sense in a world of nonsense

Introduction --

Part I: Getting a grip on reality. Decisions, decisions, decisions --

Instruments and reality --

Making things happen --

Part II: Understanding uncertainty. A radical shift to probablistic thinking --

Overconfidence and humility --

Finding signal in noise --

Seeing things that aren't there --

Pick your poison : two kinds of error --

Statistical and systematic uncertainty --

Part III: The radical can-do stance. Scientific optimism --

Orders of understanding and Fermi problems --

Part IV: Minding the gaps. Why it's hard to learn from experience --

Science gone wrong --

Confirmation bias and blind analysis --

Part V: Joining forces. The wisdom and madness of crowds --

Weaving facts and values --

The deliberation challege --

Rebooting trust for a new millennium.